Mitch's MLB Bet of the Day | October 12, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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PLAYOFF RECORD: 4-2, +1.86u
RECAP: Yesterday was not a fun win, as the Astros are a sweaty team and made it as sweaty as possible, but they were just the better team last night, and it showed. Getting the team with more experience on the road in a close-out game was a no-brainer to me, and we got a great win out of Pressley and company. Let’s get another low-odds winner today, too.

October 12, 2023

PICK: Phillies/Braves u8.5
This isn’t a fun pick, I know, but I trust that this game is going to be really tight, and that no matter who wins, pitching will win in today’s contest. 

While I want the Braves to win today’s game just for a “Game Five” sake, I see a lot of value in the pitching matchup today. The Braves are handing their season to Spencer Strider, while the Phillies are just looking to get through tonight with Ranger Suarez. While Strider is going to get all of the headlines (and is the only reason why the Braves are away favorites in the close-out game of this series, to be honest), Suarez has been solid all year, and it’s an exact matchup of the first game of the series, making this a rematch in just a few days. 

Strider has to really put it together at some point, right? The once Cy Young-hopeful kept the Phillies to just one earned run over his seven innings pitched just five days ago, and so while he probably won’t be able to go seven again, he’s definitely going to give everything that he’s got in order to keep them in this game, whether that’s five innings or just three. The Phillies have struggled against Strider all season, and I expect that to continue today. 

On the other side, Ranger Suarez is going to look to be the hero, where he’ll be tasked with going probably four-five innings in this game, and then for the bullpen to pick up the slack. The Braves have really struggled against the Phils bullpen in this series, and get this: in their last five games, the Braves haven’t scored a single run against left-handed pitching. While that will probably change today, they’ve been absolutely diced by Suarez in the past, and he’ll be effective today against this potent Braves lineup. 

The Phillies offense is really the one that I’m worried about because they can put up runs in bunches, but we may be able to sneak out of here with another plus-money or close-to-plus-money winner in the fourth game of this series. Hopefully it isn’t the last, as I’d love to be able to continue making money off of these teams!

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